Re-Drafting the 2009 NBA Draft Class

The 2009 NBA draft was a point guard extravaganza, yet James Harden, the guy who currently leads the class in career assists, was quite clearly a 2 when he came off the board.

That's a good indicator of the unpredictability from this class.

We've got intrigue at the top, as a pair of MVPs vie for the No. 1 spot, plus a gaggle of role players and starting lead guards who've now captained offenses for over a decade.

This particular re-draft demands some difficult apples-to-oranges comparisons, as we'll have to weigh the value of volume scorers against three-and-D specialists. Not only that, but there are several picks who produced massive counting numbers on losing teams. Should they go ahead of proven winners with less gaudy conventional stats?

As a reminder, positional need isn't a concern here. We're after the best player available at each draft slot, and we'll determine a player's quality by considering peak years, longevity, overall stats and impact on team success. We'll also assume each drafting team gets its pick's entire career; it's the only way to do this fairly.

We may as well get to the toughest re-draft call first. Stephen Curry or James Harden: Who ya got?

This is about more than rings, of which Stephen Curry has three to James Harden's zero.

The reason Curry goes first in the 2009 re-draft ahead of Harden, a player some might argue deserves the honor more, is deeper than that.

The two-time MVP (and only unanimous selection ever) fundamentally changed basketball. He ushered in an era of off-the-dribble shooting that broke every defensive model in existence. When Curry started firing the ball up from 30 feet off the dribble, the league had no answer on defense and no choice on offense but to make its best attempt at mimicry.

Curry, the greatest shooter the game has ever seen, was the three-point revolution.

Would Harden have ever been allowed to play the kind of game he does today if Curry hadn't forced a reconsideration of offensive norms years earlier?

As one of the best off-ball movers in history, gifted with the kind of quiet, forceful leadership coaches dream of in their top players and devoid of ego (he recruited Kevin Durant and deferred to his superstar teammate whenever asked), Curry is a once-in-a-generation sports icon.

His production, persona and track record of success are everything you'd ever want in a No. 1 pick.

Actual Pick: Blake Griffin

Curry's Actual Draft Slot: 7th, Golden State Warriors

There haven't been many scorers in NBA history harder to contain than James Harden, and his total offensive dominance has him well ahead of the 2009 class in just about every statistic worth considering.

The basics: He's tops in total games, minutes, points and assists.

The advanced: He leads in win shares, box plus-minus and value over replacement player.

An MVP, an eight-time All-Star and a two-time scoring champ, Harden also owns six All-NBA nods (five of the first-team variety) and has finished in the top 10 in MVP voting every year since 2012-13. In much the same way Curry warped the game with his shooting, Harden is now forcing teams to think harder about the value of isolation scoring.

The step-back he's added in recent years will be remembered as one of the great innovations in the game, and Harden's Rockets have made several deep playoff runs during his tenure.

Coming off the board after Curry isn't a slight. But Harden lacks the championships Curry has, is renowned for not caring on defense, and his playoff resume is dotted with disappointing individual declines in performance. Steph's resume isn't perfect, but Harden's has several obvious holes.

That said, he'd go first in almost any other re-draft.

Actual Pick: Hasheem Thabeet

Harden's Actual Draft Slot: 3rd, Oklahoma City Thunder

If you take Blake Griffin, you have to accept the loss of what should have been his rookie year.

That's fine. Because when he recovers from knee surgery and debuts in 2010-11, you get almost a decade of this, and this, and this.

It would have been interesting to see things work out like this, with Griffin landing on his hometown Oklahoma City Thunder alongside Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. It's difficult to fathom a scenario more exciting than what played out in reality with Lob City, but a Russ-KD-Blake trio probably would have managed to scrape together a highlight or two.

Griffin was the league's most show-stopping dunker since Vince Carter, and he paired his feats of fearsome athleticism with production, averaging at least 20 points per game in eight of his first nine years. In 2018-19 with the Detroit Pistons, an athletically diminished version of Griffin became his team's primary facilitator while hitting 36.2 percent of his 7.0 three-point attempts per game.

It's hard to remember a run-and-jump athlete of Griffin's caliber later excelling with a game built on craft and skill. Usually, when the bounce goes, so does the productivity. Not so with Griffin.

Two players in history match or exceed Griffin's career averages of 21.7 points, 8.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists: Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird. 

A six-time All-Star, five-time All-NBA selection and three-time finisher in the top 10 for MVP voting, Griffin is this guard-heavy class' best big man by a mile.

Actual Pick: James Harden

Griffin's Actual Draft Slot: 1st, Los Angeles Clippers

Obviously, since he's coming off the board after backcourt peers Curry and Harden, nobody's arguing Jrue Holiday is the best guard in this draft.

But he might be the most complete.

Twice named to the All-Defensive team (one first, one second), Holiday has spent his career checking the opponent's most dangerous backcourt or wing scorer. And while most stars hide on weaker matchups to save energy in the playoffs, Holiday steps up to the challenge of guarding elite opponents.

He also ranks fifth among 2009 draftees in total points and third in assists and steals. He's a career 35.5 percent three-point shooter, and his 920 makes rank sixth in the class.

We're already out of guys who could be the best player on a contender, but Holiday is at the top of the next tier. He's a career-long starter who can run a team (6.4 assists per game in over 11 seasons), operate as a high-end No. 2 scorer and defend anyone in front of him.

He's a Grade-A second option who has been more than that in big moments.

Actual Pick: Tyreke Evans

Holiday's Actual Draft Slot: 17th, Philadelphia 76ers

He's a defensive zero and almost constitutionally opposed to shooting threes, but DeMar DeRozan's reliable offensive production is still too substantial to ignore at No. 5.

The 6'6" wing has four career All-Star trips and was a back-to-back All-NBA selection in 2016-17 (third team) and 2017-18 (second team), earning those honors with high-volume scoring. DeRozan's game is an unusual combination of mid-range patience built on perfect footwork and, in his earlier years, explosion at the rim. Actually, he's still got some lift.

One way to make up the efficiency lost by refusing to shoot threes is to hit everything at close range. DeRozan's 65.9 percent accuracy rate inside three feet is extremely high for a non-big.

The knocks are known: DeRozan's teams have been better with him off the floor in all but one of his 11 seasons, and his playoff scoring has been less efficient than during the regular season.

But there aren't any other available picks who can get you at least 20 points per game seven seasons in a row like DeRozan did from 2013-14 to 2019-20. And let's not overlook durability; only Harden has more career games played, field goals and free throws made than DeRozan among 2009 picks.

Actual Pick: Ricky Rubio

DeRozan's Actual Draft Slot: 9th, Toronto Raptors

If you're wondering how a role-playing wing who can't really dribble ranks this high, I'll answer your question with another one: How many times do we need to see Danny Green impacting title-winners until everyone agrees he's been the most valuable three-and-D wing of his generation?

Green is fourth in the 2009 class in box plus-minus, which is the first indication of his positive on-court influence. Two-way play? He's the only player picked in 2009 with a career three-point accuracy rate north of 40.0 percent (40.2) and an All-Defensive nod (second team, 2016-17).

Among the most effective transition defenders in the league during his younger years, Green had a knack for disrupting what should have been advantageous situations for opponents. A two-on-one break was somehow an even-odds proposition when Green was the "one".

In the half court, Green could handle point guards and wings alike. When those mid-teens San Antonio teams matched up with the Warriors, for example, it was often Green tasked with wrangling Curry.

Had the Spurs won the 2013 title, there's a good chance Green would have been Finals MVP. He shot 48.2 percent from three across 21 postseason contests that year, and his seven made treys in Game 3 of the Finals gave San Antonio a 2-1 lead over Miami. When the Spurs broke through to dethrone the Heat in 2014, he shot 47.5 percent from deep during the postseason.

His career didn't need a capstone, but Green went ahead and started all year (including all 24 playoff games) for the champion 2019 Raptors. Now in the Los Angeles Lakers' first unit, he's got a great shot at a third ring if the 2019-20 season resumes.

Pretty good for a guy originally picked 46th.

Actual Pick: Jonny Flynn

Green's Actual Draft Slot: 46th, Cleveland Cavaliers

Wesley Matthews scored with more volume than Green (21.1 points per 100 possessions to Green's 17.7), and he's played 105 more career games, but the Marquette product wasn't quite the same level of shooter or defender.

Matthews is Green lite.

A 38.1 percent shooter on 4,347 career heaves from beyond the arc, Matthews is the ninth-most accurate long-range gunner in league history with that many attempts. Unlike Green, picked 46th, who floundered around for a time before proving himself with San Antonio, Matthews exposed his undrafted status as a mistake right away.

He played all 82 games with the Utah Jazz as a rookie and scored 15.9 points per game on 58.2 percent true shooting in his second season, kicking off a run of nine straight years with double-figure scoring averages.

The best stretch of his career came in Portland, where he averaged 15.4 points and shot 39.4 percent from distance over five seasons, three of which included playoff trips.

Matthews even overcame the dreaded Achilles tear, playing 78 games and averaging 12.5 points with the Mavericks in 2015-16 after suffering the injury March 5, 2015. Nobody ever makes it back that fast, and though Matthews hasn't been quite the same guy since, he's currently a rotation weapon on a dominant 2019-20 Bucks team.

Actual Pick: Stephen Curry

Matthews' Actual Draft Slot: Undrafted

Ricky Rubio starts a stretch of the re-draft that'll be dominated by point guards, and separating them into a sensible order involves stylistic preference and intangibles as much as the numbers.

Rubio is seventh in the 2009 class in box plus-minus, a good reflection of his generally positive impact on the court. Though injury woes pared down three of his first four seasons with the Wolves and hurt his career counting totals, Rubio grades out highly in some key per-game stats. His 7.8 assists and 1.9 steals per contest are the highest among 2009 draftees.

Inconsistent shooting from the perimeter (Rubio has literally alternated passable and awful three-point percentages for his entire nine-year career) and poor finishing inside make him one of the league's easier starters to scheme against, but he's produced break-even or better on-off splits for his entire career. That's because he does everything but score extremely well.

A few lead guards who have higher peaks and more scoring skill will come off the board after him, but Rubio is a truly gifted passer, a committed defender and a universally beloved teammate. Points and shooting percentages matter, but so do all the other things Rubio does effectively.

Actual Pick: Jordan Hill

Rubio's Actual Draft Slot: 5th, Minnesota Timberwolves

You know what you're getting with Darren Collison, a rock-solid mid-tier starting point guard for 10 seasons whose steady game helped him amass 49.9 win shares. Only six picks in this draft had more.

Eighth among 2009 selections in total points, sixth in assists and trailing only Curry and Green with a 39.4 percent conversion rate from three-point range (among players with at least five career attempts; sorry, Jeff Ayres), Collison shot at least 40 percent from long range in his final four seasons. He peaked at a ridiculous, league-leading 46.8 percent in 2017-18.

A slow release meant Collison was never a high-volume shooter, but his accuracy was elite. He ranked in the top 15 percent of point guards in points per shot seven different times. And though he wasn't a rapid-fire shooter, the UCLA product was known for the occasional assist outburst. He had 20 dimes as a rookie with the Hornets and handed out at least 15 helpers five times in his career.

Quick with the ball and dangerous off it, Collison was also a high-velocity transition weapon. In his early days, he even had some sneaky lift.

Actual Pick: DeMar DeRozan

Collison's Actual Draft Slot: 21st, New Orleans Hornets

It took Ty Lawson until 2011-12 to establish himself as an unquestioned starter, and his career ended in 2017 when multiple alcohol-related offenses finally soured the league on him for good. But in between the late start and abrupt conclusion to his career, Lawson turned in a handful of seasons that made him a realistic All-Star consideration—even if he never officially earned the honor.

A blur in the open floor and devastatingly shifty in one-on-one situations, Lawson averaged 16.4 points and 8.0 assists during his four-year peak with the Nuggets from 2011-12 to 2014-15. During that span, Chris Paul and John Wall were the only other players to match or exceed Lawson's point and assist figures.

An explosive scorer who once made 10 consecutive threes (despite a funky right-leg kickout), the 5'11" guard even had the occasional above-the-rim highlight.

Though not around for long and nowhere near as reliable as Rubio or Collison, Lawson's most productive seasons, brief as they were, are good enough to earn him a top-10 re-draft spot.

Actual Pick: Brandon Jennings

Lawson's Actual Draft Slot: 18th, Minnesota Timberwolves (traded to Denver Nuggets)

11. New Jersey Nets: Taj Gibson

Gibson lacks the top-end star power you'd hope for in a lottery pick, but he makes up for that with toughness, defense and efficient frontcourt play. In a class as bereft of bigs as this one, those qualities count for a little extra.

Undersized at 6'9", Gibson never had an issue overpowering opposing 4s, and his 4,998 career boards, which rank second to Griffin in the class, show he more than held his own underneath. So do his four seasons ranking among the top 15 in block percentage.

Only Harden and DeRozan exceed Gibson's 799 career games, and none of the 22 2009 selections with at least 3,500 career shot attempts converted them at a rate higher than Gibson's 51.5 percent.

12. Charlotte Bobcats: Jeff Teague

Teague is the last All-Star off the board. He earned that distinction in 2015 as part of the four-player contingent that represented the 60-win Hawks in the season's midyear exhibition.

Teague averaged 15.9 points that year, part of an ongoing nine-season run during which he's averaged between 10.9 and 16.5 points per contest. Although he's played more games than any point guard in this draft (excluding Harden), Teague falls short of Lawson's peak, isn't the shooter Collison was and can't touch Rubio's passing, leadership or defense.

He might also be the worst post-entry passer to ever play the point. Still, he moves up seven slots from his original position.

13. Indiana Pacers: Patty Mills

Another in a long line of superstar Spurs role players, Mills is a high-energy three-point gunner who dogged opposing guards with some of the best on-ball defense in the league during his younger years. At 38.9 percent for his career, the Aussie can't be ignored for a second from deep. Among 2009 selections, only Curry and Harden average more career three-point attempts per 100 possessions.

Mills also deserves recognition for his role in one of the most gorgeous, consequential stretches of ball ever played.

14. Phoenix Suns: Joe Ingles

Ingles was undrafted in 2009 and didn't play his first regular-season game until 2014-15. What he's done since is enough to land him in the lottery, though it's worth noting he might have made the top 10 with a larger sample.

A 40.7 percent marksman on threes, Ingles is the rare sniping specialist who can also run a pick-and-roll. At 6'7", he has the size to see passes smaller ball-handlers can't, and his lob chemistry with Rudy Gobert has long been key to Utah's offense.

Gifted with the special brand of craft that always seems to show up in lefties, Ingles overcomes a lack of footspeed with patience, off-time hesitation and savvy manipulation of contact. He's a quality starting wing or an elite sixth man, depending on team need.

15. Detroit Pistons: Tyreke Evans

If Evans had sustained the trajectory he set with one of the most impressive rookie seasons in memory (and won a few more games over his career), he probably would have justified a top-five spot in the re-draft. But he never bettered the season in which he won Rookie of the Year and became just the fourth rookie to average at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists (Luka Doncic has since expanded the group to five).

The counting numbers still came, and Evans sits at 15.7 points, 4.8 assists and 4.6 rebounds for his career. But even in that remarkable rookie campaign, the Kings' net rating was 5.8 points better with Evans off the court. That trend held in four of his first five seasons and six of 10 overall.

When his three-point shot came around with the Pelicans in 2015-16, Evans actually started to contribute to team success. But by then, he'd lost a lot of off-the-bounce verve. The tools remained, and Evans even put together averages of 19.4 points, 5.2 assists and 5.1 rebounds in 52 games with the 2017-18 Grizzlies. But dismissal from the league in May 2019 for violating the anti-drug program may explain why Memphis wasn't eager to retain him.

16. Chicago Bulls: Patrick Beverley

With two All-Defensive inclusions (first team in 2016-17, second in 2013-14), Beverley, a Chicago kid, is the best defensive guard left on the board. His career 38.0 percent conversion rate on threes doesn't hurt, either.

Beverley's per-game averages in points, rebounds and assists all exceed Mills', and their advanced metrics—win shares, VORP and box plus-minus—are all close enough to be negligible. Mills went two spots earlier because of his big-moment success and longer career. Beverley's 428 games are way behind Mills' 668, but it's a safe bet the former has talked roughly 6,000 times as much trash as the latter.

17. Philadelphia 76ers: DeMarre Carroll

Carroll didn't find an NBA home until 2013-14 with the Hawks, bouncing between Memphis, Houston, Denver and Utah before establishing himself in his late 20s. From that year through 2018-19, he was a valuable three-and-D wing, joining Harden, Curry and Green as the only players drafted in 2009 to accumulate 600 threes and 400 steals during that span.

He's ninth in defensive box plus-minus among 2009 picks who played at least 400 games and might be the class' style leader.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves: Brandon Jennings

Jennings' 55-point game as a rookie was a borderline "you remember where you were when you heard" event, and the slick left-hander would earn an All-Rookie first-team spot for his stellar initial campaign.

Jennings never cracked the 40-point mark in any other game during his career, though he scored at least 30 points 32 different times. You might think a player who ranks ninth in the class in total points should have a higher draft slot, but of the 29 guys picked in 2009 who attempted at least 2,000 career shots, Jennings' 49.6 true shooting percentage ranks dead last.

19. Atlanta Hawks: James Johnson

One of just two players in the 2009 class with 1,000 assists, 500 blocks and 400 steals, the versatile Johnson has occupied every role from shutdown defensive wing to unconventional point center during his 11-year career. Gibson is the only 2009 pick with more career swats.

A tough, physical player whose literal black-belt status must occupy real estate in the back of every opponent's mind, Johnson is among the more intimidating figures in the league. If only his late-career three-point shooting growth had started earlier...

20. Utah Jazz: Aron Baynes

It's possible Baynes' sudden three-point accuracy is getting too much weight here, but it's hard to overlook the worth of a stout defensive center adding a deep ball as he gets further into his 30s.

Baynes hit 34.4 percent of his triples in 2018-19 and then nearly quadrupled his volume and made 35.1 percent in 42 games before the 2019-20 season's suspension. The 6'10" bruiser, undrafted in 2009, was valuable before the long ball. He's always been a trustworthy positional defender, solid offensive rebounder and physical presence. The trey is just gravy.

21. New Orleans Hornets: Wayne Ellington

There are a few shooting specialists left, but Ellington comes off the board ahead of them because of his ability to do more than hit standstill jumpers. It's remarkable he shot over 39 percent on triples in five different seasons, considering how many he took at a dead sprint with a defender in his jersey.

His prowess as a tough-shot maker peaked in 2017-18 with the Heat when he averaged a career-best 11.2 points and hit closely guarded shots all year long. His 1,016 made treys are fifth in the class.

22. Portland Trail Blazers: Jodie Meeks

Meeks had a more complete game than Ellington, and his 37.3 percent three-point hit rate was right in line with Ellington's 37.8. But the 6'4" guard out of Kentucky had a much harder time staying healthy. He played 142 fewer games and 2,168 fewer minutes than Ellington. 

That's a lot of lost volume.

23. Sacramento Kings: Jonas Jerebko

The run on shooting continues, as the Kings snatch up a 6'10" Swedish forward who shot over 38 percent from distance in four different seasons. Jerebko wasn't much of a defender or passer, but he competed on the boards and made a habit of contributing with high-effort plays.

Though he never averaged more than the 9.3 points he scored as a rookie before tearing his Achilles, Jerebko winds up 17th in win shares among 2009 picks. That fact suggests he was doing a lot else right.

24. Dallas Mavericks: Omri Casspi

A dangerous cutter who could handle the ball a bit and punish teams from deep, Casspi oddly lost his offensive confidence toward the end of his career, turning down looks a shooter that good should never have denied.

Still, the 6'9" forward out of Israel averaged 20.3 minutes over 588 games (16th in the class) and shared a memorable back-and-forth shooting duel with none other than Curry in 2015. He hit nine threes and scored 36 points in that shootout with Steph. Only one remaining undrafted player matched that total during his career. Speaking of which...

25. Oklahoma City Thunder: Marcus Thornton

Thornton could flat out score.

He topped 36 points six different times in his eight seasons, getting as high as 42 twice. He averaged 14.5 points as a rookie and posted a career-best 18.7 points per game in 2011-12. Unfamiliar with the concept of passing and lacking a single positive defensive box plus-minus figure for any season of his career, Thornton is this class' most one-dimensional player.

26. Chicago Bulls: Gerald Henderson

Henderson's hops were real, which makes the hip injuries that sapped his athleticism and the torn Achilles that ended his career in 2018 all the more unfortunate.

Despite lasting just eight seasons, Henderson ranks 14th among his draftmates in total points—right below Danny Green and above Patty Mills. Mostly healthy from 2011-12 to 2014-15, Henderson played his best ball and put up 14.1 points per game.

27. Memphis Grizzlies: DeJuan Blair

Blair logged just 424 total games and was out of the league by 2016, but he's one of two players in the class to average at least 14 points and 11 rebounds per 36 minutes. The league leader in offensive rebound rate in 2010-11, Blair also graded out as a positive defensive influence in four of his first five seasons.

28. Minnesota Timberwolves: Garrett Temple

Undrafted out of LSU, Temple got better with age. Mainly a point guard at the start of his career, the 6'5" Temple established himself as a reliable rotation wing in his age-26 season with the Wizards. The five highest single-season scoring averages of his career have all come in his last five seasons. In 55 games with the Nets this year, he was posting a personal-best 10.3 points per game.

A respected figure in the locker room and a sound defender who plays within himself, Temple shook off the undrafted stigma and has played 569 games (so far). 

29. Los Angeles Lakers: Dante Cunningham

This is strictly a testament to Cunningham's longevity. Despite averaging 5.8 points per game (tied for 34th in the class), the 6'8" forward from Villanova ranks fifth with 715 career games.

An extremely low-usage offensive component (career 13.2 usage rate), Cunningham defended with versatility and provided a steadying influence coveted by young teams.

30. Cleveland Cavaliers: Chase Budinger

Budinger played for four teams in his seven seasons, probably peaking in notoriety in the 2012 dunk contest. The former volleyball player's vert made him a consistent source of highlights, and he was more than a dunker, shooting 35.2 percent from deep and hitting at least four threes in a game 14 times.

A slew of knee injuries started in 2012-13, and Budinger never produced enough from that point on to stick in anyone's rotation.